Troubled Metros Getting Worse, Stable Metros Getting Better

July 30th, 2010

Thumbs up and thumbs down

May’s Case Shiller report was more positive than April’s, probably due to a last minute rush for the federal tax credit that expired April 30th. 15 of the 20 metro-areas reported showed improvement, while 7 of the metro areas are still reporting negative annual growth rates.

Las Vegas posted a new index low of -56% from its peak in August 2006, effectively canceling any price gains it had posted since 2000. Detroit home prices are now at levels last seen in late 1994. Overall, average home prices across the United States are back to 2003 levels.

At Real Wealth Network, we like to buy low and cash flow or sell high. Now’s the time to get bargains, but where?

Fiserv, Inc.  just released its analysis of home price trends based on the Case-Shiller Indexes.  The analysis shows U.S. single-family home prices rose an average of 2 percent in the first quarter of 2010 over the year-ago quarter. This marks the first year-over-year national gain since 2006. However, the stronger markets are carrying most of the gains.

The overall increase was driven by strong price increases in San Francisco Bay Area, San Diego and Washington, D.C.  The largest gains were in the San Francisco Bay area, where San Jose home values were up 17.2 percent.

Prices were actually lower in 303 of the 384 metro areas compared to the first quarter of last year. Detroit, Las Vegas and many small Florida markets continued to plummet, with double-digit declines. Provo, Salt Lake City and St. George, markets that historically perform well, posted declines of 13.3 percent, 9.9 percent and 17.5 percent, respectively.

This data tells us that even though some areas have had major price declines and are more affordable than ever, the ride downhill might not be over.
The Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes forecast that average single-family home prices will fall another 4.9 percent over the next 12 months. But remember, there’s no such thing as a national housing market, only local.That’s like quoting a national weather forecast.

Steep home price declines are expected to continue in markets that have been hurt most by the housing crisis. From the first quarter of 2010 through the first quarter of 2011, average home prices in Nevada, Arizona and Florida are projected to decline 11.1 percent, 10.8 percent and 8.8 percent, respectively.

At Real Wealth Network, we’ve been warning investors for years that the former bubble markets are the most troubled and will continue to be for some time. Investors jumping into NV, AZ and FL may have found great deals, but the deals will likely get even better next year and perhaps into 2012. Additionally, with so much distressed property, there’s more vacant homes and more homeowners trying to sell or rent their properties. That’s too much competition for our taste.

California is a former bubble market but seems to be performing well, according to the data. However, we believe the price increases are not all due to appreciation, but rather a higher priced property now in distress. Prime, Alt A and Option Arm loans are now resetting, and there’s a lot more of them than the subprime. More than half of all option ARMS are i CA. While certain pockets of CA will always be in demand, we still recommend using caution before buying to hold rental property. More foreclosures are coming.

So where do we recommend investing?

Dallas and Cleveland showed gains in the first quarter and are expected to continue their upward trends. Kansas City and Indianapolis are expected to stabilize. These linear markets  never had a bubble and never had a burst. Homeowners didn’t lose their nest egg or their “ATM” equity lines. Living expenses are affordable, allowing for more dollars to hit the local economy. The local governments are not losing out on property tax revenue that forces layoffs and budget deficits. And most importantly, the cash flow is still better than the risky markets.

What will you do with this information?  What’s your next move as an investor?  Share your comments below.

Don’t Get Suckered in Real Estate

July 24th, 2010

A company based in Lodi, California has been sued by investors in Los Angeles Superior Court who claim they were suckered into buying what what turned out to be worthless OREO properties.

(An OREO refers to Other Real Estate Owned – the accounting term for “other” properties banks own because they had to foreclose. REO is the term that has been mistakenly used for foreclosed properties, but an REO is the Real Estate Owned intentionally by the banks.)

The suit claims the company, Fortuno Enterprise, sold investors OREO homes at under-market prices and then promised to help re-sell them for substantially higher prices. The 24 plaintiffs in the suit bought a combined 41 OREO properties in Ohio and Michigan for prices ranging from $25,000 to $31,995 each. The homes were worth $5,000 to $7,000 at the most. The suit claims that “after relying on these representations, Plaintiffs purchased the homes to find that they were not inhabitable and required extensive repairs.”

“The Fortuno Enterprise also promised to find a buyer for the properties at a substantial profit to plaintiffs. The so-called buyers were unqualified and often failed to make payments thereby creating a hold-over tenant requiring eviction,” the allegations continue. “For other plaintiffs, no purchasers could be found and the houses were unmarketable in their current conditions.”

The bottom line is that local investors are now stuck with worthless properties that need substantial repair and are located out of state in undesirable neighborhoods. How could these investors have protected themselves?

Real Wealth Network was actually contacted by this company several years ago. We could smell the fraud through the telephone lines.

Here’s how we knew it was a bad deal:

1. The company was selling the properties “as is.” No rehab was done. An OREO typically sits vacant for over a year. During that time, most of the moving parts get stolen and squatters are known to light fires in the living room to keep warm at night. They also tend to use any room as a bathroom. How could they be resold to an owner occupant at a higher price when no rehab was done?

2. The “sale” was actually going to be seller-financed, which means the investor would hold the note. Just like a bank, the investor would take the property back if the buyer defaulted. A property in “as is” condition would not be a property we’d want to take back.

3. There was no local expert involved to inform the investor of the quality of the neighborhood or the condition of the property and there was no local property manager to help oversee things while marketing for an end-buyer.

4. Fortuno offered us a very large referral fee. They told us they were buying the properties for $5000-$7000 and would sell them to us for $12,000. We could then turn around and sell them to our members for $25,000. We knew immediately that this was fraud and passed on the deal. However, we noticed that other groups were actively selling these properties.

Greed is a powerful force. Both the sellers and the buyers were looking for a quick buck, without considering the consequences. However, I’m sure many of the investors were new to real estate and didn’t know how to perform due diligence.

Here’s a few ways they could have protected themselves:

1. Real estate sales data is public information. Investors could have found out quickly from on-line records that Fortuno had marked up the properties.

2. Technology today allows us to get information at the click of a button. It’s quite simple to get a satellite image of the neighborhood, a street or even a home. Or we can use old technology, like the phone, and ask a local person to drive by and take some photos.

3. Any local realtor will give out a CMA for free, which contains information on comparable sales and the estimated value of the property. Zillow.com may not be always accurate, but will give a list of recent sales in the area.

4. Why would anyone buy a property sight unseen without first getting an inspection? For $350 they could have had a professional check the condition of the property and make a list of all the needed repairs. An independent appraisal could also be ordered for $350.

5. End buyers need to be qualified, or the chances for default are imminent. Haven’t we all have learned something from the subprime meltdown?

There are many simple ways to protect yourself in real estate. It is a hard asset you can see, touch and feel. You can hire independent inspectors and appraisers to evaluate it. If you bypass these common practices, you will get in trouble. As an investor, you are expected to know the basics of investing. This is what the judge might say in this case.

Remember that Real Wealth Network offers free consultation to our members. Let’s take 5 minutes to review whatever deal you are considering. Contact us here.

Here’s a link for more information on this story.

Is it a Good Time or a Terrible Time to Buy?

June 5th, 2010

Before buying any property, always ask yourself, "Why am I buying this?" This seems obvious, yet many buyers later regret not asking this simple question.

The best reason to buy property today is for cash flow. There has never been such a perfect combination of low home prices, low interest rates and high rents. It makes a lot of sense today to buy a home if it's cheaper to own it than to rent it. There are many areas in the country where this is possible, and both home owners and investors should take advantage of this rare opportunity to increase cash flow.

However, in high priced markets along the coasts, the opposite is true. It's still cheaper to rent than to buy, which means there may be more price adjustments on the way.  Low interest rates have made it possible for people to afford more expensive homes, but what will happen when rates creep up? They have been held artificially low since the Fed started buying mortgage backed securities, but that program is now over. Even a half percent increase in rate can price buyers out of the market.

Take a look at Walnut Creek, California. In 2006, the median home price was $729,000. Today, it's $526,000. The federal tax credit boosted the values up a bit from a low of $510,000 last year at this time, so some buyers think the upward trend will continue. But they may not be considering that the average income in Walnut Creek is $82,000. An affordable mortgage should be only 3 times the annual income, not 6.5. For Walnut Creek to become affordable, the median home price would need to be $246,000. When interest rates rise, but incomes don't, the result is a downward pressure on prices.

Compare these numbers to Dallas, Texas, where some neighborhoods have a $90,000 median income, $135,000 median home price and $1450 median rent.

If you were to rent in Walnut Creek, a $526,000 home would lease for about $2000 per month. That's $1000 less than the mortgage, taxes, insurance and basic home maintenance would have been. Even with tax deductions, you'd still pay less to rent and would not be subjected to the risk of potentially further declines in prices.

However, even if it is more expensive to buy than rent in places like Walnut Creek, it still might make more sense for some people.  These buyers may be seeking stability, tax relief, or a chance to renovate to their liking. As long as they plan to stay put for a minimum of 10 years, they could find themselves ahead of the game.

The government is attempting to create inflation to combat deflation. This is done by expanding the money supply. Even if the median home prices dropped another 20% to $420,000 during this deflationary period, it could experience huge gains once inflation kicks in. With just 5% inflation, that home could be worth over $700,000 10 years later.

Leveraged real estate has always been the best hedge against inflation because you can pay your loan back in less valuable dollars. You don't have any more spending power, but at least you've kept up with times. This means you've got to be able to hold on to the property for an extended period of time to reap the rewards.

If you're buying investment property, once again, you must ask yourself, "why?" Income that far exceeds expenses is a great reason. Selling the home for profit after making improvements also works. But buying on speculation, simply hoping that prices will rise again can be a huge mistake – especially if the property has negative cash flow at the get-go.

If you bought the $526,000 home in Walnut Creek as an investment, you'd put $125,000 down and then pay $12,000 in negative cash-flow. In the long run, the prices very well could go up, but then you'd have to add up the cost of lost funds along the way.

 Whereas, had you bought in a cash-flow market like Dallas, you could have bought 4 properties with $125,000 down. The cash flow would be $300 per property per month, or $14,400 annually positive cash flow.

One strategy would be to take all that cash flow to pay off the 1st home in 8 years, and the 2nd home 4 years after that. That means in 12 years you'd have $31,200 in annual cash-flow, 2 houses paid off (valued at $300,000 not including inflation) and 2 more houses that could be paid off in 4 more years. (For a total equity position of $600,000 and $48,000 annual income, not including inflation.)

Compare these numbers to the Walnut Creek home that may or may not have inflated to $700,000 in 12 years. Subtract the $140,000 paid to negative cash flow so the real value to you is $560,000, but the loan would still be over $400,000. That's a $160,000 equity position and still a negative cash flow position.

The difference between the high priced markets and the cash flow markets is significant. And all this, just because you asked, "Why?"
 

Finding Deals and Private Money

April 8th, 2010

Gaining Equity & Profits You may have seen an email earlier this week on a 10-home development project in the San Francisco Bay Area.  This opportunity presents a high return for investors in a short period of time. We had a tremendous amount of interest in the project, so I wanted to mention why this type of project is right for some people. As you know, I have mentioned that California has a ways to go before the shadow inventory burns off, jobs stabilize and we're back to equilibrium. Holding for the long-term in CA doesn't make sense to me right now because cash-flow is not as high as other states, and price appreciation in CA won't happen for years to come in most areas. However, manufactured or forced equity growth can happen. If you find a distressed property, fix it up and resell it, you can make money – especially with the added tax credit incentives to buyers right now. But not everybody has the time or expertise to take on the risks of such a project. That's why Real Wealth Network set up a private money fund called Network Capital Fund. Folks who want to put their idle dollars to work can get the benefits of flipping without having to put in the time or effort. If you have an equity line and are paying 5%, but stand to make 15% in the fund, you could earn 10% passive income on borrowed money. This kind of return may be higher than if you were to use the equity line for buy & hold property because the interest payments cut into the cash-flow. For example, if you had a $200k equity line and used it to buy cash-flow property, your return would be approximately 6-8% because you've got to account for the cost of funds. But if you put that $200K into the fund, the return might be 15% – $30,000 cash. Now if you used that cash gained (not the equity line) to purchase rental property, your return would double or even triple vs. using 100% borrowed money. PS – If you can find a fantastic deal, we may be able to fund it. We raised $3M in a weekend for the 10-home development project. We would like to know about the good deals you find. Don't let lack of financing stop you. We can help you raise the  money. To Your Health & Wealth, Kathy and the Real Wealth Team

Investor Tip of the Week – March 18

March 18th, 2010

properties_on_world

Why are just a handful of states experiencing the majority of foreclosure activity? Massive job losses are the major contributor to Michigan’s foreclosure rate. And equity losses are the major contributor to  the big “bubble” states -   CA, FL, AZ and NV foreclosures.

If you are looking for stability, focus on the states with job diversity and affordability. Even though the bubble states are more affordable now, many home owners are still stuck in loans from the housing peak. Housing around them may be affordable, but their loans are not.  If they can’t get a loan modification that includes principal reduction, chances are they will walk. And at this point, most mods don’t include principal reduction.

To Your Health & Wealth,

Kathy and the Real Wealth Team

The Weekly Wealth Report – March 15

March 15th, 2010

Mortgage Calculator

Greetings!
We are very excited to unveil our newest market at next week’s live event. I think you’ll be very impressed with the cash flow. Our speaker is a veteran investor who owns hundreds of homes. Even if you have no interest in investing out-of-state, you will learn his strategies for success using real estate investing fundamentals.

Hope to see you there!

Kathy and The Real Wealth Team
www.RealWealthNetwork.com

Financing

Applications for purchase loans were up a seasonally adjusted 5.7% from the week before, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Buyers may be taking advantage of today’s historically low rates before the end of the month when the Fed stops buying mortgage bonds, which has helped keep rates low. The homebuyer’s tax credit also is slated to end April 30.

Investors are also locking in low interest rates on 30 year fixed loans. Cash flow will increase with inflation, while monthly loan payments remain fixed.

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The Market

IRVINE , Calif. – March 11, 2010 – RealtyTrac®

Nevada, Arizona, Florida post top state foreclosure rates
Nevada foreclosure activity decreased nearly 7 percent from the previous month and was down 30 percent from February 2009, but the state’s foreclosure rate continued to rank highest in the nation for the 38th month in a row. One in every 102 Nevada housing units received a foreclosure filing during the month “” more than four times the national average.

Arizona and Florida documented nearly identical foreclosure rates, with one in every 163 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing in both states. Despite a nearly 21 percent decrease in foreclosure activity from the previous month, Arizona’s rate was statistically slightly higher than Florida’s rate and ranked second highest among the states.

California’s foreclosure rate ranked fourth highest among the states, with one in every 195 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the month, and Michigan’s foreclosure rate ranked fifth highest among the states, with one in every 226 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing.

Other states with foreclosure rates among the nation’s 10 highest were Utah (one in every 275 housing units), Idaho (one in 296), Illinois (one in 305), Georgia (one in 331) and Maryland (one in 407).

The Weekly Wealth Report – March 1

March 1st, 2010

graph

Greetings!

This week’s event should be very interesting, whether you have money or want money. Get an inside look at how local investors are making huge profits either borrowing or lending hard money.  See details below.

Hope to see you there!

Kathy and The Real Wealth Team

Financing

You probably know by now that the Fed raised its discount rate on emergency loans to banks by 0.25%, to 0.75%. The discount rate is not the Fed funds rate and the central bank said the increase does not “…signal any change in the outlook for the economy or for monetary policy….”  However, some analysts feel the Fed move was an attempt to appease inflation “hawks” who fear that a new bubble is growing as a result of all the “free money” to banks.

Investors are still locking in 5.5% interest rates on 30 year fixed loans. I think we can all agree that we will see serious inflation over the next 30 years, yet your fixed rate will not change. In 10 years, your payment will feel like half of what it is today . Rents will go up with inflation, but your payment is locked. What a beautiful deal.

Our lenders in Birmingham, Indianapolis and Dallas can finance up to 10 properties! Get a free quote from one of our preferred lenders.

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The Market

A few years back, a member from our network urged me to consider working with a group up in Sacramento that made pretty stellar guarantees to its investors. After reviewing their offering, we denied it. Sure enough, several years later, that group has been charged by the SEC for defrauding investors.  http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2010/2010-24.htm

Why did we turn that “golden opportunity” down? First of all, the properties were in California, and all our research showed that CA housing prices were way out of whack in comparison to incomes at that time. We knew an adjustment was coming.

Second, there were guarantees – guarantees of a certain appreciation rate, guarantees of rental income and guarantees of a certain return. This is real estate. There are no guarantees. You can do many things to mitigate the risk by buying right, but anything can happen… And it did.

Third, too much control was given to the managing partners. That made me nervous. I like to be in control. Just ask my husband. And that’s why I like real estate as an investment.

Investor Tip of the Week – December 28th

December 28th, 2009

Is it time to buy in Phoenix, Vegas, Florida or California? We get calls on a daily basis of members asking if we think it's time to buy in Phoenix, Vegas, or in parts of Florida and California. My answer is that while there are some great deals, you've got to be very careful. Every available index is showing red hot risk in those areas. The top guys at Realty Trac and Foreclosure Radar tell us that defaults are way up from last year, yet NOD's (notice of defaults) and foreclosures are way down. How is this possible? It's quite simple. Banks are playing a popular Wall Street game called, "Pretend." If they don't report NOD's, they don't exist. This creative accounting shows profits are up! They can pay back the TARP money, give themselves fat year-end bonuses, and attract investors. As a result, foreclosure inventory in the high foreclosure areas is oddly low. Buyers who mistakenly believe lack of inventory means the market has turned are making multiple offers over asking price. Nothing could be farther than the truth in the bubble markets. Linear markets, on the other hand, are stabilizing. We can earn high cash flow in these areas while enjoying stability.  After 2012, we may start to see a return to normalcy in the bubble markets and can possibly consider a 1031 exchange at that time.